On March 13, 2025, the initiative “Gipfel der Logistikweisen” (Logistics Experts’ Summit) published its logistics forecast for 2025. Experts note structural issues in Germany’s economy but also see signs of stabilization in several sectors.
Key Findings:
- Stagnation in Construction and Chemical Industry
The number of new construction applications is not growing, and high energy costs hinder the recovery of the chemical sector. - Slight Stabilization in Mechanical Engineering
The decline in orders has stopped. - Automotive Industry
Despite increased orders at the end of 2024, no significant production growth is expected in 2025. - Increased Demand for Consumer Goods
However, private investment levels will remain low due to rising unemployment and growing savings. - Modest Growth in the Electronics Sector
Thanks to ongoing digitalization, demand for electronics remains stable.
Prices and Logistics Costs:
- Cost Reduction Efforts
Logistics companies are forced to reduce expenses, leading to greater automation and digitalization. - High Labor Costs
Despite growing unemployment, qualified workers are increasingly difficult to find. - Fuel and Energy
A slight price decrease is expected due to weak global demand, particularly from China. - Transportation Costs
Road freight will face rising expenses, rail tariffs are expected to increase, air freight will remain in demand, and sea freight rates will stay stable.
Trends and Future Outlook:
- Digitalization and Automation
Logistics is becoming more dependent on technology due to workforce shortages. - Shifts in Global Trade
The USA and China are becoming less significant for Germany, while the European economy is expected to start recovering by 2026. - Political Instability
Major improvements in economic policy are only expected toward the end of 2025.
Our Conclusions: What Does This Mean for Ordinary People?
The state of logistics reflects the broader economic landscape. High operational costs and stagnation in key industries may lead to continued price increases for goods and services. Rising unemployment and declining private investment could impact living standards, particularly in the consumer sector. However, the growth of technology and automation might open up new opportunities in the labor market.